Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. SD are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 14/23 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 3 | 65 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.