Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+1.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.102
- 39.0%Success rate38.6%
- +0.010EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.228
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- 33.0%Third-down rate37.0%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
- 1.40Points / drive1.03
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.076EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenn Foley | 18/30 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 23 | 99 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Glenn Foley | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mayes | 7 | 11 | 137 | 1 |
| Fabien Bownes | 2 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 22/42 | 212 | 0 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 25 | 94 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Conway | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Curtis Conway | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| John Allred | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.97