1999 · Week 2

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Glenn Foley

14·13

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

Total

39

Model margin

+1.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBears
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.102
  • 39.0%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.228
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 33.0%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.03
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.076EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17SEA @ CHI6–3SEA
2021 · W16CHI @ SEA25–24CHI
2018 · W2SEA @ CHI17–24CHI
2015 · W3CHI @ SEA0–26SEA
2012 · W13SEA @ CHI23–17SEA
2011 · W15SEA @ CHI38–14SEA
2010 · playoffsSEA @ CHI24–35CHI
2010 · W6SEA @ CHI23–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CHI
CHIQ100Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 15:001162Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 9:36512Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:4264Missed field goal0–0
SEAQ1 5:17618Punt0–0
CHIQ1 2:0837Punt0–0
SEAQ1 0:3012—0–0
SEAQ200Turnover0–0
SEAQ2 15:0014Turnover0–0
CHIQ2 14:523-7Punt0–0
SEAQ2 13:514-5Turnover0–0
CHIQ2 12:32531Touchdown0–7
SEAQ2 10:203-5Punt0–7
CHIQ2 8:241145Field goal0–10
SEAQ2 3:2777Punt0–10
CHIQ2 0:3800End of half0–10
SEAQ3 15:001173Turnover0–10
CHIQ3 10:38825Punt0–10
SEAQ3 6:26421Punt0–10
CHIQ3 4:54938Field goal0–13
SEAQ3 2:07985Touchdown7–13
CHIQ4 13:04517Punt7–13
SEAQ4 10:577100Touchdown14–13
CHIQ4 7:51520Punt14–13
SEAQ4 5:49938Punt14–13
CHIQ4 2:421570Missed field goal14–13
SEAQ4 0:0800End of half14–13

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Glenn Foley18/3028320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters23994.30
Glenn Foley3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mayes7111371
Fabien Bownes23541
Ricky Watters33340
Mike Pritchard12210
Sean Dawkins1570
Itula Mili1240

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews22/4221200
Cade McNown1/2400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Enis25943.81
Glyn Milburn22010.00
Edgar Bennett144.00
Shane Matthews1-1-1.00
Curtis Conway1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson36420
Bobby Engram38330
Curtis Enis37290
Curtis Conway37260
Glyn Milburn24180
John Allred22170
Ryan Wetnight34170
Macey Brooks11150
Alonzo Mayes12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.97