Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.072
- 44.4%Success rate40.1%
- +0.044EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.142
- 8.2%Explosive rate5.9%
- +4.61CPOE-0.22
- 37.5%Third-down rate33.1%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.82Points / drive1.65
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 17/23 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 16/28 | 122 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.37