2010 · DIV

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

24·35

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 24°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CHI -10

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBears
  • -0.117EPA / play-0.097
  • 38.3%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.072EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.194EPA / rush-0.166
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.80CPOE+0.87
  • 37.0%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.43
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17SEA @ CHI6–3SEA
2021 · W16CHI @ SEA25–24CHI
2018 · W2SEA @ CHI17–24CHI
2015 · W3CHI @ SEA0–26SEA
2012 · W13SEA @ CHI23–17SEA
2011 · W15SEA @ CHI38–14SEA
2010 · W6SEA @ CHI23–20SEA
2009 · W3CHI @ SEA25–19CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CHI
SEAQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:25366Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 12:08536Punt0–7
CHIQ1 9:22521Punt0–7
SEAQ1 6:4937Punt0–7
CHIQ1 5:24850Touchdown0–14
SEAQ1 1:19510Punt0–14
CHIQ2 14:12963Touchdown0–21
SEAQ2 10:0169Punt0–21
CHIQ2 8:24746Punt0–21
SEAQ2 5:12620Punt0–21
CHIQ2 2:293-2Punt0–21
SEAQ2 1:3147Punt0–21
CHIQ2 0:431-6End of half0–21
CHIQ3 15:0035Punt0–21
SEAQ3 13:3730Punt0–21
CHIQ3 12:111470Touchdown0–28
SEAQ3 4:12715Field goal3–28
CHIQ3 1:52734Turnover3–28
SEAQ4 13:221028Touchdown10–28
CHIQ4 11:21738Punt10–28
SEAQ4 7:2848Punt10–28
CHIQ4 6:17348Touchdown10–35
SEAQ4 4:40774Touchdown17–35
CHIQ4 2:1647Turnover on downs17–35
SEAQ4 1:51255Touchdown24–35
CHIQ4 1:2500End of half24–35

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck26/4625830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Golden Tate11313.00
Leon Washington199.00
Justin Forsett492.30
Marshawn Lynch420.50
Matt Hasselbeck100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Stokley811851
Ben Obomanu48680
Justin Forsett34250
Cameron Morrah34250
Mike Williams413152
John Carlson11140
Ruvell Martin11130
Leon Washington11100
Golden Tate0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler15/2827420
Matt Forte0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte25803.20
Chester Taylor11444.01
Jay Cutler8435.42
Earl Bennett199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen391131
Matt Forte33540
Johnny Knox47480
Kellen Davis22421
Earl Bennett14130
Devin Hester2440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+5.06