Closing spread
CHI -10
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play-0.097
- 38.3%Success rate39.0%
- -0.072EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.194EPA / rush-0.166
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.80CPOE+0.87
- 37.0%Third-down rate33.1%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.36Points / drive1.43
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/46 | 258 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Stokley | 8 | 11 | 85 | 1 |
| Ben Obomanu | 4 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 13 | 15 | 2 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 15/28 | 274 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 25 | 80 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 9 | 113 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+5.06