Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
41
Model margin
-0.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.087EPA / play+0.042
- 41.4%Success rate43.8%
- -0.077EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.105EPA / rush+0.026
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.87CPOE+4.08
- 34.7%Third-down rate37.3%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 1.62Points / drive2.12
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. SEA are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 24/35 | 250 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 21 | 45 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 7 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Dazz Newsome | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 16/27 | 181 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 17 | 135 | 7.9 | 1 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 5 | 68 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.55
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.41