2021 · Week 16

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Nick Foles

25·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 25°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

41

Model margin

-0.4est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.087EPA / play+0.042
  • 41.4%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.077EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.105EPA / rush+0.026
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.87CPOE+4.08
  • 34.7%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
  • 1.62Points / drive2.12
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. SEA are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17SEA @ CHI6–3SEA
2018 · W2SEA @ CHI17–24CHI
2015 · W3CHI @ SEA0–26SEA
2012 · W13SEA @ CHI23–17SEA
2011 · W15SEA @ CHI38–14SEA
2010 · playoffsSEA @ CHI24–35CHI
2010 · W6SEA @ CHI23–20SEA
2009 · W3CHI @ SEA25–19CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–SEA
SEAQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:4038Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:04780Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 9:001645Turnover on downs0–7
SEAQ1 0:3332Punt0–7
CHIQ2 13:40625Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 10:151265Touchdown7–14
CHIQ2 4:47721Punt7–14
SEAQ2 1:02655Field goal7–17
CHIQ2 0:17112End of half7–17
CHIQ3 15:0051Punt7–17
SEAQ3 11:5136Punt7–17
CHIQ3 10:571161Touchdown14–17
SEAQ3 5:30461Touchdown14–24
CHIQ3 3:321263Field goal17–24
SEAQ4 10:42632Missed field goal17–24
CHIQ4 7:18517Turnover on downs17–24
SEAQ4 5:01615Punt17–24
CHIQ4 2:56665Touchdown25–24
SEAQ4 1:01619Turnover on downs25–24
CHIQ4 0:1700End of half25–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles24/3525010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery21452.11
Khalil Herbert22110.51
Damien Williams11212.00
Nick Foles482.00
Darnell Mooney221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Montgomery79610
Darnell Mooney59570
Cole Kmet45490
Jimmy Graham22301
Marquise Goodwin22230
Damiere Byrd13110
Dazz Newsome12100
Khalil Herbert1170
Damien Williams1220

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson16/2718120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny171357.91
DeeJay Dallas4153.80
Russell Wilson2136.50
Dee Eskridge177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gerald Everett45681
DK Metcalf25411
Tyler Lockett36300
DeeJay Dallas44230
Dee Eskridge23100
Freddie Swain1290
Rashaad Penny0100
Colby Parkinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.55
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.41