2011 · Week 15

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Tarvaris Jackson

38·14

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Hanie

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

-3.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBears
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.110
  • 38.9%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.03CPOE-2.53
  • 33.6%Third-down rate32.9%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.37
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17SEA @ CHI6–3SEA
2021 · W16CHI @ SEA25–24CHI
2018 · W2SEA @ CHI17–24CHI
2015 · W3CHI @ SEA0–26SEA
2012 · W13SEA @ CHI23–17SEA
2010 · playoffsSEA @ CHI24–35CHI
2010 · W6SEA @ CHI23–20SEA
2009 · W3CHI @ SEA25–19CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:5738Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:23319Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 11:02520Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 8:41942Punt7–0
SEAQ1 3:343-4Opp touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 2:23730Punt7–7
CHIQ2 14:00945Turnover7–7
SEAQ2 9:49619Punt7–7
CHIQ2 6:481057Touchdown7–14
SEAQ2 1:51611Punt7–14
CHIQ2 0:3023End of half7–14
SEAQ3 15:00580Touchdown14–14
CHIQ3 13:0223Opp touchdown21–14
CHIQ3 12:1247Punt21–14
SEAQ3 10:04633Punt21–14
CHIQ3 6:10411Punt21–14
SEAQ3 4:37723Field goal24–14
CHIQ3 1:033-1Punt24–14
SEAQ4 14:25629Touchdown31–14
CHIQ4 12:3951Punt31–14
SEAQ4 10:24930Turnover on downs37–14
CHIQ4 5:1110Opp touchdown38–14
CHIQ4 5:00312Turnover38–14
SEAQ4 4:1447Turnover on downs38–14
CHIQ4 1:53420End of half38–14

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson19/3122710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch20422.12
Justin Forsett6122.00
Leon Washington362.00
Golden Tate122.00
Tarvaris Jackson3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate47610
Ben Obomanu13430
Mike Williams24310
Zach Miller45230
Cameron Morrah12210
Deon Butler22190
Doug Baldwin12130
Justin Forsett1190
Marshawn Lynch2250
Anthony McCoy0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Hanie10/2311113
Josh McCown1/21201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kahlil Bell15654.30
Caleb Hanie5346.80
Marion Barber11333.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kahlil Bell56431
Dane Sanzenbacher26260
Earl Bennett11200
Johnny Knox13150
Kellen Davis13100
Roy Williams1490

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.4%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.48
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-3.63