Closing spread
CHI -3.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
-3.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.110
- 38.9%Success rate39.3%
- -0.035EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.03CPOE-2.53
- 33.6%Third-down rate32.9%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.31Points / drive1.37
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 19/31 | 227 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 42 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Justin Forsett | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Hanie | 10/23 | 111 | 1 | 3 |
| Josh McCown | 1/2 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahlil Bell | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Caleb Hanie | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahlil Bell | 5 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.4%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.48
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.63