2015 · Week 3

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jimmy Clausen

0·26

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -16.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+10.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.105
  • 42.8%Success rate47.1%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.255
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.8%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +1.51CPOE+7.64
  • 42.3%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.18
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. SEA are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17SEA @ CHI6–3SEA
2021 · W16CHI @ SEA25–24CHI
2018 · W2SEA @ CHI17–24CHI
2012 · W13SEA @ CHI23–17SEA
2011 · W15SEA @ CHI38–14SEA
2010 · playoffsSEA @ CHI24–35CHI
2010 · W6SEA @ CHI23–20SEA
2009 · W3CHI @ SEA25–19CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–SEA
CHIQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:2836Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:13742Punt0–0
SEAQ1 6:4536Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 5:1637Punt0–3
SEAQ1 3:09521Punt0–3
CHIQ1 0:041147Punt0–3
SEAQ2 8:26410Punt0–3
CHIQ2 5:53614Punt0–3
SEAQ2 2:371182Field goal0–12
SEAQ3 15:0000Touchdown0–13
CHIQ3 14:48414Punt0–13
SEAQ3 12:52421Punt0–13
CHIQ3 10:1541Punt0–13
SEAQ3 8:21785Touchdown0–20
CHIQ3 4:2839Punt0–20
SEAQ3 2:27762Field goal0–23
CHIQ4 14:0338Punt0–23
SEAQ4 12:251155Field goal0–26
CHIQ4 6:1635Punt0–26
SEAQ4 4:22725End of half0–26

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen9/176300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte20743.70
Jimmy Clausen3134.30
Jacquizz Rodgers4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller11210
Eddie Royal33170
Martellus Bennett45150
Jacquizz Rodgers11100
Matt Forte0300
Josh Bellamy0200
Marquess Wilson0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3023510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls161046.50
Russell Wilson6284.70
Marshawn Lynch5142.80
Fred Jackson2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham78831
Jermaine Kearse66760
Doug Baldwin33350
Ricardo Lockette12230
Fred Jackson2290
Marshawn Lynch1190
Chris Matthews0100
Cooper Helfet0100
Thomas Rawls0100
Tyler Lockett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +16.56.5%2.3%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

75.8%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+10.62