Closing spread
SEA -16.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+10.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.105
- 42.8%Success rate47.1%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.255
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.9%
- +1.51CPOE+7.64
- 42.3%Third-down rate47.8%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.74Points / drive2.18
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. SEA are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 9/17 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/30 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 16 | 104 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 6 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
75.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.62