2012 · Week 13

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

23·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBears
  • +0.109EPA / play-0.041
  • 45.2%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.104
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +5.50CPOE-0.76
  • 39.8%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.47
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17SEA @ CHI6–3SEA
2021 · W16CHI @ SEA25–24CHI
2018 · W2SEA @ CHI17–24CHI
2015 · W3CHI @ SEA0–26SEA
2011 · W15SEA @ CHI38–14SEA
2010 · playoffsSEA @ CHI24–35CHI
2010 · W6SEA @ CHI23–20SEA
2009 · W3CHI @ SEA25–19CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CHI
SEAQ1 15:00529Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 11:59739Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 8:33526Punt0–7
CHIQ1 6:181478Turnover on downs0–7
SEAQ2 12:48436Punt0–7
CHIQ2 10:25740Punt0–7
SEAQ2 7:20994Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 2:1539Punt7–7
SEAQ2 1:36834Field goal10–7
CHIQ2 0:0500End of half10–7
CHIQ3 15:0037Punt10–7
SEAQ3 13:21518Punt10–7
CHIQ3 9:561274Touchdown10–14
SEAQ3 3:1031Punt10–14
CHIQ3 1:46719Punt10–14
SEAQ4 13:37829Punt10–14
CHIQ4 8:49741Punt10–14
SEAQ4 3:4013107Touchdown17–14
CHIQ4 0:24258Field goal17–17
SEAOT1285Touchdown23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3729320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch19874.61
Russell Wilson9717.90
Leon Washington284.00
Robert Turbin166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice69991
Golden Tate56961
Doug Baldwin45460
Marshawn Lynch23110
Anthony McCoy11110
Zach Miller2670
Leon Washington1260
Braylon Edwards0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler17/2623320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte21663.10
Michael Bush7395.60
Jay Cutler5275.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall10141650
Matt Forte33301
Eric Weems12180
Earl Bennett13121
Evan Rodriguez2280
Michael Bush0100
Kellen Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.60