Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.041
- 45.2%Success rate39.6%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.104
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- +5.50CPOE-0.76
- 39.8%Third-down rate36.4%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.17Points / drive1.47
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/37 | 293 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 87 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 9 | 71 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 6 | 9 | 99 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 6 | 96 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/26 | 233 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 21 | 66 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 10 | 14 | 165 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Evan Rodriguez | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.60