Closing spread
CHI -5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.039
- 44.2%Success rate46.3%
- +0.208EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.119
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- +7.30CPOE+2.41
- 38.7%Third-down rate41.4%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 2.23Points / drive1.96
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/36 | 226 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 25/34 | 200 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 10 | 14 | 83 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 4 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.09