2018 · Week 2

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

17·24

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CHI -5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBears
  • +0.093EPA / play+0.039
  • 44.2%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.208EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.119
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +7.30CPOE+2.41
  • 38.7%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.96
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17SEA @ CHI6–3SEA
2021 · W16CHI @ SEA25–24CHI
2015 · W3CHI @ SEA0–26SEA
2012 · W13SEA @ CHI23–17SEA
2011 · W15SEA @ CHI38–14SEA
2010 · playoffsSEA @ CHI24–35CHI
2010 · W6SEA @ CHI23–20SEA
2009 · W3CHI @ SEA25–19CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CHI
SEAQ1 15:00831Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:351273Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 4:55414Punt0–7
CHIQ1 3:15716Punt0–7
SEAQ2 14:1545Punt0–7
CHIQ2 11:5910Turnover0–7
SEAQ2 11:5133Punt0–7
CHIQ2 10:45521Turnover0–7
SEAQ2 8:543-11Punt0–7
CHIQ2 6:331144Field goal0–10
SEAQ2 1:07637Field goal3–10
CHIQ3 15:00511Punt3–10
SEAQ3 11:3632Punt3–10
CHIQ3 10:39727Punt3–10
SEAQ3 6:363-1Punt3–10
CHIQ3 5:301166Touchdown3–17
SEAQ4 14:151170Touchdown10–17
CHIQ4 10:13312Punt10–17
SEAQ4 8:37411Opp touchdown10–24
SEAQ4 6:37516Turnover10–24
CHIQ4 4:2933Punt10–24
SEAQ4 2:42999Touchdown17–24
CHIQ4 0:1400End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3622621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny10303.00
Chris Carson6244.00
Russell Wilson3175.70
Mike Davis331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett57601
Brandon Marshall46440
Will Dissly35421
Jaron Brown33360
Nick Vannett35230
C.J. Prosise33220
Chris Carson0100
Rashaad Penny0200
Mike Davis11-10

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky25/3420022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard14352.50
Mitchell Trubisky5244.80
Taylor Gabriel3175.70
Tarik Cohen482.00
Trey Burton122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson1014830
Jordan Howard34330
Taylor Gabriel47300
Trey Burton44201
Tarik Cohen11170
Anthony Miller23111
Josh Bellamy1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.09