2010 · Week 6

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

23·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CHI -6

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBears
  • -0.117EPA / play-0.097
  • 38.3%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.072EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.194EPA / rush-0.166
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.80CPOE+0.87
  • 37.0%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.43
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17SEA @ CHI6–3SEA
2021 · W16CHI @ SEA25–24CHI
2018 · W2SEA @ CHI17–24CHI
2015 · W3CHI @ SEA0–26SEA
2012 · W13SEA @ CHI23–17SEA
2011 · W15SEA @ CHI38–14SEA
2010 · playoffsSEA @ CHI24–35CHI
2009 · W3CHI @ SEA25–19CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00522Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 12:42685Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 10:0332Punt7–7
SEAQ1 9:06415Punt7–7
CHIQ1 7:043-6Punt7–7
SEAQ1 5:1549Punt7–7
CHIQ1 3:3831Punt7–7
SEAQ1 2:32737Touchdown14–7
CHIQ2 14:51665Field goal14–10
SEAQ2 11:5138Punt14–10
CHIQ2 10:25424Punt14–10
SEAQ2 8:491056Punt14–10
CHIQ2 3:29686Field goal14–13
SEAQ2 1:10319End of half14–13
SEAQ3 15:00612Punt14–13
CHIQ3 12:262-10Safety16–13
SEAQ3 11:403-1Punt16–13
CHIQ3 10:13415Punt16–13
SEAQ3 7:5638Punt16–13
CHIQ3 6:2747Punt16–13
SEAQ3 4:281192Touchdown23–13
CHIQ4 13:45418Punt23–13
SEAQ4 11:5439Punt23–13
CHIQ4 10:53520Punt23–13
SEAQ4 8:3435Punt23–13
CHIQ4 7:021163Missed field goal23–13
SEAQ4 3:4232Opp touchdown23–20
SEAQ4 1:5400End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck25/4024210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett10676.71
Marshawn Lynch17442.61
Matt Hasselbeck3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams10151230
Deon Butler44471
John Carlson24210
Brandon Stokley33170
Chris Baker12160
Marshawn Lynch3390
Justin Forsett1490
Leon Washington1200
Golden Tate0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler17/3929000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chester Taylor4317.80
Jay Cutler2199.50
Matt Forte8111.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox5111200
Earl Bennett36550
Devin Aromashodu25400
Matt Forte37400
Devin Hester23260
Brandon Manumaleuna1150
Chester Taylor1240
Greg Olsen0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.02