Closing spread
CHI -6
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play-0.097
- 38.3%Success rate39.0%
- -0.072EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.194EPA / rush-0.166
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.80CPOE+0.87
- 37.0%Third-down rate33.1%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.36Points / drive1.43
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 25/40 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 10 | 67 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 44 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 10 | 15 | 123 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/39 | 290 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 5 | 11 | 120 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Manumaleuna | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.02