Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
38
Model margin
+4.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. OAK are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 20/30 | 178 | 2 | 1 |
| Cade McNown | 3/5 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 15 | 35 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macey Brooks | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 4 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Curtis Conway | 4 | 11 | 33 | 1 |
| Marcus Robinson | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| John Allred | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.