Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
38
Model margin
+4.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. OAK are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 50 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:40 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 7:38 | 1 | 5 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:32 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 4:07 | 2 | 14 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:06 | 16 | 64 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CHI | Q2 10:47 | 11 | 42 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 5:43 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CHI | Q2 3:11 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:50 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| CHI | Q2 1:43 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:07 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| CHI | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CHI | Q3 12:47 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CHI | Q3 11:20 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 8:57 | 7 | 66 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| CHI | Q3 5:12 | 8 | 32 | Missed field goal | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 1:17 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| CHI | Q4 13:13 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LV | Q4 11:20 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| CHI | Q4 6:45 | 4 | -2 | Punt | 17–24 |
| LV | Q4 5:13 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 17–24 |
| CHI | Q4 2:36 | 3 | -6 | Turnover | 17–24 |
| LV | Q4 1:52 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 20/30 | 178 | 2 | 1 |
| Cade McNown | 3/5 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 15 | 35 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macey Brooks | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 4 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Curtis Conway | 4 | 11 | 33 | 1 |
| Marcus Robinson | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| John Allred | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.