Closing spread
CHI -3.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. OAK are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 7/14 | 142 | 1 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 10/14 | 97 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 29 | 76 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
6.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.