Closing spread
CHI -3.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. OAK are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:55 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 9:18 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 4:29 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 1:53 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 0:55 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 13:07 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 6:51 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 3:40 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:08 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q3 13:11 | 4 | 33 | Missed field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q3 11:31 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q3 10:13 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q3 7:51 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q3 4:52 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q3 0:05 | 3 | 16 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q4 14:06 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q4 12:36 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q4 11:06 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q4 8:01 | 7 | 14 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| CHI | Q4 4:04 | 3 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| LV | Q4 3:11 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–6 |
| CHI | Q4 2:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LV | Q4 1:48 | 1 | -9 | Turnover | 16–6 |
| CHI | Q4 1:39 | 1 | 3 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| LV | Q4 1:35 | 6 | 39 | Turnover | 17–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 7/14 | 142 | 1 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 10/14 | 97 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 29 | 76 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
6.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.