Closing spread
CHI -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bears
- OutBilal NicholsDTHand· DNP
- OutMitchell TrubiskyQBleft Shoulder· DNP
- OutTaylor GabrielWRConcussion· DNP
- OutTed LarsenGKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulJoel IyiegbuniweLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableAkiem HicksDTKnee· Limited
Raiders
- OutGabe JacksonGKnee· DNP
- QuestionableClelin FerrellDEConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableDwayne HarrisWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJ.J. NelsonWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableRichie IncognitoGBack· DNP
- QuestionableTyrell WilliamsWRFoot· DNP
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. OAK are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 54 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 9:42 | 8 | 46 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:01 | 10 | 90 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 14:55 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:23 | 7 | 22 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| CHI | Q2 9:51 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 7:32 | 11 | 43 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| CHI | Q2 1:56 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–17 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LV | Q3 14:09 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| CHI | Q3 13:19 | 3 | 5 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 12:43 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CHI | Q3 10:16 | 12 | 89 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| LV | Q3 3:56 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 14–17 |
| CHI | Q3 1:41 | 2 | 16 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| LV | Q3 1:16 | 5 | 30 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| CHI | Q4 13:51 | 11 | 56 | Punt | 21–17 |
| LV | Q4 7:49 | 13 | 92 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| CHI | Q4 1:57 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| LV | Q4 1:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–24 |
| CHI | Q4 0:13 | 3 | -2 | End of half | 21–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Daniel | 22/30 | 231 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 7 | 9 | 97 | 2 |
| Anthony Miller | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| J.P. Holtz | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.