Closing spread
CHI -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. OAK are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Daniel | 22/30 | 231 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 7 | 9 | 97 | 2 |
| Anthony Miller | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| J.P. Holtz | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.