2025 · Week 4

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

25·24

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -1.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-1.6est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.192
  • 45.7%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.122EPA / dropback-0.130
  • +0.007EPA / rush-0.304
  • 10.1%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -3.48CPOE-0.91
  • 42.0%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.25
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–3 since 1999

CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. LV are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7LV @ CHI12–30CHI
2021 · W5CHI @ LV20–9CHI
2019 · W5CHI @ OAK21–24RAIDERS
2015 · W4OAK @ CHI20–22CHI
2011 · W12CHI @ OAK20–25RAIDERS
2007 · W10CHI @ OAK17–6CHI
2003 · W5OAK @ CHI21–24CHI
1999 · W3CHI @ OAK17–24RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–LV
CHIQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:14521Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 10:483-4Field goal3–0
LVQ1 9:5358Turnover3–0
CHIQ1 7:1467Turnover3–0
LVQ1 4:16760Touchdown3–7
CHIQ1 0:08934Punt3–7
LVQ2 10:2233Turnover3–7
CHIQ2 8:4879Field goal6–7
LVQ2 4:22164Touchdown6–14
CHIQ2 4:03837Field goal9–14
LVQ2 0:53329End of half9–14
LVQ3 15:0010Turnover9–14
CHIQ3 14:42760Touchdown16–14
LVQ3 11:381080Touchdown16–21
CHIQ3 5:2339Punt16–21
LVQ3 3:3137Punt16–21
CHIQ3 1:07940Field goal19–21
LVQ4 11:38863Field goal19–24
CHIQ4 6:451173Touchdown25–24
LVQ4 1:34522Missed field goal25–24
CHIQ4 0:3300End of half25–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams22/3721211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift14382.71
Kyle Monangai4184.50
Caleb Williams8131.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rome Odunze48691
Cole Kmet39460
Olamide Zaccheaus56410
DJ Moore45380
D'Andre Swift46220
Luther Burden III22-40

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith14/2111723

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty211386.61
Raheem Mostert46215.50
Geno Smith4317.80
Tre Tucker294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers56460
Jakobi Meyers47300
Ashton Jeanty22172
Tre Tucker22130
Raheem Mostert11110
Dont'e Thornton Jr.0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.64