Closing spread
LV -1.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.192
- 45.7%Success rate38.6%
- +0.122EPA / dropback-0.130
- +0.007EPA / rush-0.304
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- -3.48CPOE-0.91
- 42.0%Third-down rate34.1%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.32Points / drive1.25
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. LV are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 22/37 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Kyle Monangai | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze | 4 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 14/21 | 117 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 21 | 138 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 4 | 62 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 2 | 2 | 17 | 2 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.35
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.64