2021 · Week 5

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

20·9

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -5.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.3est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.087EPA / play-0.001
  • 41.4%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.077EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.161
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -2.87CPOE+1.92
  • 34.7%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.87
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–3 since 1999

CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. LV are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CHI @ LV25–24CHI
2023 · W7LV @ CHI12–30CHI
2019 · W5CHI @ OAK21–24RAIDERS
2015 · W4OAK @ CHI20–22CHI
2011 · W12CHI @ OAK20–25RAIDERS
2007 · W10CHI @ OAK17–6CHI
2003 · W5OAK @ CHI21–24CHI
1999 · W3CHI @ OAK17–24RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–LV
CHIQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:5833Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:3534Punt0–0
LVQ1 10:081489Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 4:001261Touchdown7–3
LVQ2 13:11638Turnover on downs7–3
CHIQ2 10:131686Touchdown14–3
LVQ2 1:564-4Punt14–3
CHIQ2 0:5046End of half14–3
LVQ3 15:0038Punt14–3
CHIQ3 13:3639Punt14–3
LVQ3 11:4236Turnover14–3
CHIQ3 11:0130Punt14–3
LVQ3 10:04830Punt14–3
CHIQ3 5:51524Punt14–3
LVQ3 2:201754Touchdown14–9
CHIQ4 9:011153Field goal17–9
LVQ4 2:45410Turnover on downs17–9
CHIQ4 1:5532Field goal20–9
LVQ4 0:56425End of half20–9

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields12/2011110
Andy Dalton1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert18754.20
Damien Williams16644.01
Justin Fields341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney35350
Allen Robinson45320
Cole Kmet24220
Damien Williams23200
Marquise Goodwin1280
Jesper Horsted1121

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr22/3520601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs15483.21
Kenyan Drake2115.50
Derek Carr3103.30
Nathan Peterman221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Renfrow68560
Henry Ruggs III33510
Darren Waller48450
Bryan Edwards26220
Josh Jacobs45190
Zay Jones1260
Jalen Richard1140
Willie Snead1130
Kenyan Drake0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.25