Closing spread
LV -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.3est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.087EPA / play-0.001
- 41.4%Success rate45.2%
- -0.077EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.161
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.87CPOE+1.92
- 34.7%Third-down rate36.8%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.62Points / drive1.87
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. LV are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 12/20 | 111 | 1 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Justin Fields | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jesper Horsted | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 22/35 | 206 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfrow | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.25