Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. CHI are 6-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 16 | 68 | Touchdown | 6–0 |
| CHI | Q1 6:10 | 8 | 46 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:32 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 6–0 |
| CHI | Q2 13:18 | 5 | 9 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| LV | Q2 11:05 | 9 | 76 | Field goal | 9–3 |
| CHI | Q2 7:35 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 9–3 |
| LV | Q2 7:13 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 12–3 |
| CHI | Q2 6:19 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 12–3 |
| LV | Q2 5:16 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 15–3 |
| CHI | Q2 1:51 | 7 | 69 | Turnover | 15–3 |
| LV | Q2 0:16 | 2 | 9 | Field goal | 18–3 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 18–3 |
| LV | Q3 12:02 | 3 | 2 | Missed field goal | 18–3 |
| CHI | Q3 11:08 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 18–3 |
| LV | Q3 7:05 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 18–3 |
| CHI | Q3 7:00 | 3 | -9 | Field goal | 18–6 |
| LV | Q3 5:37 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 18–6 |
| CHI | Q3 4:21 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 18–13 |
| LV | Q4 14:53 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 18–13 |
| CHI | Q4 13:44 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 18–13 |
| LV | Q4 11:32 | 6 | 45 | Turnover | 18–13 |
| CHI | Q4 8:59 | 4 | 45 | Touchdown | 18–21 |
| LV | Q4 6:58 | 5 | 31 | Field goal | 21–21 |
| CHI | Q4 3:30 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 21–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 13/24 | 160 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 22 | 123 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.