Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+8.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. OAK are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Hanie | 18/36 | 254 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 10 | 63 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Caleb Hanie | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 4 | 10 | 145 | 1 |
| Roy Williams | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 10 | 25 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
6.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.48
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.