2011 · Week 12

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Hanie

20·25

Raiders

Oakland

QB Carson Palmer

O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

OAK -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+8.6est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–3 since 1999

CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. OAK are 2-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CHI @ LV25–24CHI
2023 · W7LV @ CHI12–30CHI
2021 · W5CHI @ LV20–9CHI
2019 · W5CHI @ OAK21–24RAIDERS
2015 · W4OAK @ CHI20–22CHI
2007 · W10CHI @ OAK17–6CHI
2003 · W5OAK @ CHI21–24CHI
1999 · W3CHI @ OAK17–24RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–OAK
CHIQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:26549Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 11:1137Punt0–3
LVQ1 9:3534Punt0–3
CHIQ1 8:02318Turnover0–3
LVQ1 6:2852Field goal0–6
CHIQ1 4:20739Turnover0–6
LVQ1 1:22610Punt0–6
CHIQ2 13:4935Punt0–6
LVQ2 12:1472Turnover0–6
CHIQ2 8:53979Touchdown7–6
LVQ2 4:41456Field goal7–9
CHIQ2 2:56624Turnover7–9
LVQ2 0:1825Field goal7–12
CHIQ2 0:0200End of half7–12
LVQ3 15:001071Field goal7–15
CHIQ3 11:0858Punt7–15
LVQ3 8:2232Punt7–15
CHIQ3 6:443-7Punt7–15
LVQ3 5:321151Field goal7–18
CHIQ3 0:22951Field goal10–18
LVQ4 10:5130Punt10–18
CHIQ4 10:00645Field goal13–18
LVQ4 7:17884Touchdown13–25
CHIQ4 3:47584Touchdown20–25
LVQ4 2:1135Punt20–25
CHIQ4 1:01442End of half20–25

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Hanie18/3625423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber10636.30
Matt Forte12594.90
Caleb Hanie55010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox4101451
Roy Williams35370
Matt Forte610250
Kellen Davis22251
Matt Spaeth1190
Sam Hurd1180
Earl Bennett1450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%5.4%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

6.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.48
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.58

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.