2023 · Week 7

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Brian Hoyer

12·30

Bears

Chicago

QB Tyson Bagent

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

LV -2.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBears
  • -0.086EPA / play-0.052
  • 41.5%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.045
  • 5.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -3.79CPOE+0.01
  • 35.2%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.66Points / drive1.72
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–3 since 1999

CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. CHI are 6-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CHI @ LV25–24CHI
2021 · W5CHI @ LV20–9CHI
2019 · W5CHI @ OAK21–24RAIDERS
2015 · W4OAK @ CHI20–22CHI
2011 · W12CHI @ OAK20–25RAIDERS
2007 · W10CHI @ OAK17–6CHI
2003 · W5OAK @ CHI21–24CHI
1999 · W3CHI @ OAK17–24RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:27634Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ1 10:071269Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 3:45823Punt0–7
CHIQ1 0:41936Punt0–7
LVQ2 11:0524Turnover0–7
CHIQ2 10:19634Touchdown0–14
LVQ2 7:311455Field goal3–14
CHIQ2 1:471030Turnover on downs3–14
LVQ3 15:00521Punt3–14
CHIQ3 12:201593Touchdown3–21
LVQ3 4:041523Field goal6–21
CHIQ4 12:201157Field goal6–24
LVQ4 5:4610Opp touchdown6–30
LVQ4 5:36515Turnover6–30
CHIQ4 4:3235Punt6–30
LVQ4 3:32860Touchdown12–30
CHIQ4 1:1000End of half12–30

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer17/3212902
Aidan O'Connell10/137511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs11353.20
Zamir White221.00
Tre Tucker122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams712570
Jakobi Meyers713501
Zamir White33260
Austin Hooper22180
Tre Tucker23160
Hunter Renfrow23140
Michael Mayer24130
Josh Jacobs1460
Jesper Horsted1140

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyson Bagent21/2916210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman16895.62
Darrynton Evans14483.40
Tyson Bagent3248.00
Tyler Scott2147.00
Darnell Mooney122.00
Nathan Peterman2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore89540
Darnell Mooney45320
D'Onta Foreman35311
Tyler Scott23190
Marcedes Lewis11160
Darrynton Evans1360
Travis Homer0100
Velus Jones Jr.1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.44
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.94