Closing spread
LV -2.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.052
- 41.5%Success rate41.6%
- -0.045EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.045
- 5.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.79CPOE+0.01
- 35.2%Third-down rate41.7%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.66Points / drive1.72
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. CHI are 6-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 17/32 | 129 | 0 | 2 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 10/13 | 75 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 12 | 57 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 13 | 50 | 1 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Jesper Horsted | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | 21/29 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Darrynton Evans | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tyson Bagent | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 8 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 3 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Tyler Scott | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.44
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.94