Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. CHI are 6-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 28/43 | 281 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 25 | 91 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 11 | 13 | 83 | 1 |
| Marquess Wilson | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 7 | 10 | 54 | 1 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.