Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutBenson MayowaDEKnee· DNP
- OutC.J. WilsonDECalf· DNP
- OutKeith McGillCBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableBen HeeneyLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableCharles WoodsonSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBFoot· Limited
- ProbableKhalil MackDEHip· Limited
- ProbableJamize OlawaleRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableJustin EllisDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableJustin TuckDEKnee· Full
Bears
- OutJermon BushrodTConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableAlan BallCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableAlshon JefferyWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableEgo FergusonDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJay CutlerQBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJay RatliffDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionablePat O'DonnellPright Knee· Limited
- QuestionableWill SuttonDEElbow· Limited
Win probability
- Bears
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–3 since 1999
CHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. CHI are 6-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 10:57 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q1 10:01 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 6:20 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q1 3:30 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LV | Q2 14:48 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| CHI | Q2 11:10 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| LV | Q2 8:17 | 3 | 25 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| CHI | Q2 7:12 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| LV | Q2 3:30 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| CHI | Q2 3:18 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| LV | Q2 1:26 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 14–16 |
| CHI | Q2 0:21 | 1 | -5 | End of half | 14–16 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–16 |
| CHI | Q3 13:30 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–16 |
| LV | Q3 13:21 | 7 | 30 | Field goal | 17–16 |
| CHI | Q3 10:53 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 17–16 |
| LV | Q3 7:55 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 17–16 |
| CHI | Q3 3:02 | 10 | 37 | Field goal | 17–19 |
| LV | Q4 13:01 | 7 | 31 | Turnover | 17–19 |
| CHI | Q4 9:38 | 6 | 19 | Turnover | 17–19 |
| LV | Q4 6:41 | 10 | 68 | Field goal | 20–19 |
| CHI | Q4 2:05 | 11 | 48 | Field goal | 20–22 |
| LV | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 28/43 | 281 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 25 | 91 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 11 | 13 | 83 | 1 |
| Marquess Wilson | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 7 | 10 | 54 | 1 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.