1999 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

10·17

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Stoney Case

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -12

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.110EPA / play-0.091
  • 35.3%Success rate36.5%
  • -0.079EPA / dropback-0.084
  • -0.177EPA / rush-0.100
  • 6.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 29.7%Third-down rate28.4%
  • 74.3%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.00
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
  • +0.100EPA / play allowed-0.151

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:001032Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:393-4Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:28613Punt0–0
BALQ1 6:45754Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 2:1437Punt0–3
BALQ1 0:30421Punt0–3
CLEQ2 14:065-5Turnover0–3
BALQ2 11:1121Touchdown0–10
CLEQ2 10:3137Punt0–10
BALQ2 9:09624Turnover0–10
CLEQ2 6:2564Punt0–10
BALQ2 3:4236Turnover0–10
BALQ2 2:48523Punt0–10
CLEQ2 0:5839Punt0–10
BALQ2 0:0818End of half0–10
BALQ3 15:0010Turnover0–10
CLEQ3 14:4333Field goal3–10
BALQ3 13:1939Punt3–10
CLEQ3 10:54415Punt3–10
BALQ3 9:29769Touchdown3–17
CLEQ3 5:3037Punt3–17
BALQ3 3:28418Punt3–17
CLEQ3 1:28483Touchdown10–17
BALQ4 14:03424Punt10–17
CLEQ4 11:1733Punt10–17
BALQ4 10:19829Punt10–17
CLEQ4 6:10610Punt10–17
BALQ4 4:10412Punt10–17
CLEQ4 2:3421Turnover10–17
BALQ4 2:18444End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch13/3112311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Kirby18512.80
Tim Couch6498.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Kirby78750
Kevin Johnson28181
Leslie Shepherd18140
Mark Campbell0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Stoney Case12/2516503

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Errict Rhett221135.10
Stoney Case11575.22
Chuck Evans3134.30
Jermaine Lewis111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail26490
Chuck Evans23370
Errict Rhett33270
Jermaine Lewis35230
Justin Armour14160
Aaron Pierce11130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.59
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.01