Closing spread
BAL -12
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play-0.091
- 35.3%Success rate36.5%
- -0.079EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.100
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 29.7%Third-down rate28.4%
- 74.3%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
- 1.12Points / drive1.00
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.100EPA / play allowed-0.151
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 13/31 | 123 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Kirby | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Kirby | 7 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 2 | 8 | 18 | 1 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 1 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney Case | 12/25 | 165 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 22 | 113 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Chuck Evans | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 2 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Justin Armour | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Aaron Pierce | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.59
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.01