2026 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

10·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

Huntington Bank Field · outdoors

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.071EPA / play-0.040
  • 46.2%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback+0.039
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.175
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +4.76CPOE-1.22
  • 41.4%Third-down rate32.8%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 2.06Points / drive1.65
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE
2022 · W7CLE @ BAL20–23BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
BALQ1 15:001166Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 8:113-3Punt7–0
BALQ1 6:33430Field goal10–0
CLEQ1 4:37510Punt10–0
BALQ1 1:46520Punt10–0
CLEQ2 14:18617Punt10–0
BALQ2 10:5637Punt10–0
CLEQ2 9:14527Punt10–0
BALQ2 5:57929Punt10–0
CLEQ2 1:363-5Punt10–0
BALQ2 1:12611Punt10–0
CLEQ3 15:001157Field goal10–3
BALQ3 7:48620Punt10–3
CLEQ3 4:5234Punt10–3
BALQ3 2:32632Missed field goal10–3
CLEQ4 14:1336Punt10–3
BALQ4 12:4515Turnover10–3
CLEQ4 12:36831Touchdown10–10
BALQ4 8:3337Punt10–10
CLEQ4 6:59736Missed field goal10–10
BALQ4 3:4038Punt10–10
CLEQ4 1:59957Field goal10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley19/3116510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry17583.40
Tyler Huntley5285.60
Zay Flowers111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers611660
Josh Cuevas45441
Ja'Kobi Lane45400
Justice Hill3390
Mark Andrews1340
Derrick Henry1120
Rashod Bateman0100
Devontez Walker0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson16/2616400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaleel McLaughlin9414.60
Deshaun Watson8293.60
Audric Estimé9192.11
KC Concepcion221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy44690
KC Concepcion46370
Denzel Boston15150
Jaleel McLaughlin44140
Tylan Wallace11120
Harold Fannin Jr.1390
Blake Whiteheart1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.03