2024 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

24·29

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jameis Winston

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-5.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.199EPA / play-0.179
  • 49.4%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.328EPA / dropback-0.196
  • +0.053EPA / rush-0.140
  • 12.0%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +4.67CPOE-4.22
  • 47.9%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 76.9%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 2.80Points / drive1.09
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE
2022 · W7CLE @ BAL20–23BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
BALQ1 15:001278Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 8:451491Field goal0–3
BALQ1 0:37640Field goal3–3
CLEQ2 11:51421Punt3–3
BALQ2 10:2631Punt3–3
CLEQ2 9:201052Field goal3–6
BALQ2 3:4145Punt3–6
CLEQ2 1:583-12Turnover3–6
BALQ2 1:08225Touchdown10–6
CLEQ2 0:271-1End of half10–6
CLEQ3 15:00870Touchdown10–13
BALQ3 10:4651Punt10–13
CLEQ3 8:0830Punt10–13
BALQ3 7:41667Touchdown17–13
CLEQ3 4:42672Touchdown17–20
BALQ3 2:011029Missed field goal17–20
CLEQ4 12:5832Punt17–20
BALQ4 11:3164Punt17–20
CLEQ4 9:06732Field goal17–23
BALQ4 4:55691Touchdown24–23
CLEQ4 2:36974Touchdown24–29
BALQ4 0:59646Turnover on downs24–29

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson23/3828920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry11736.61
Lamar Jackson8465.80
Justice Hill252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers7121150
Isaiah Likely44470
Nelson Agholor35361
Mark Andrews55361
Rashod Bateman15280
Justice Hill11140
Charlie Kolar1290
Derrick Henry1140

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston27/4133430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb16523.30
D'Onta Foreman5265.20
Jameis Winston221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cedric Tillman79992
Elijah Moore812850
Jerry Jeudy58790
David Njoku57611
Geoff Swaim1170
Pierre Strong1130
Jordan Akins0100
Nick Chubb0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.3%3.4%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

34.5%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-5.53