Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-5.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.199EPA / play-0.179
- 49.4%Success rate37.1%
- +0.328EPA / dropback-0.196
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.140
- 12.0%Explosive rate5.8%
- +4.67CPOE-4.22
- 47.9%Third-down rate28.8%
- 76.9%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 2.80Points / drive1.09
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 23/38 | 289 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 11 | 73 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 12 | 115 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 27/41 | 334 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Tillman | 7 | 9 | 99 | 2 |
| Elijah Moore | 8 | 12 | 85 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-5.53