Closing spread
BAL -2
Total
38.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.127
- 47.3%Success rate39.3%
- +0.111EPA / dropback-0.131
- +0.009EPA / rush-0.121
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.73CPOE-5.66
- 42.3%Third-down rate32.3%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 2.25Points / drive1.56
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 15/19 | 186 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 5 | 80 | 2 |
| Zay Flowers | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 19/36 | 121 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Strong | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | -20 | -20.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.59
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.80