2023 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

28·3

Browns

Cleveland

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -2

Total

38.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.127
  • 47.3%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback-0.131
  • +0.009EPA / rush-0.121
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +2.73CPOE-5.66
  • 42.3%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.56
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE
2022 · W7CLE @ BAL20–23BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
BALQ1 15:00311Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:42732Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:3639Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:3337Turnover6–0
BALQ1 6:42110Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 6:3888Field goal7–3
BALQ1 2:213-3Punt7–3
CLEQ1 0:4134Punt7–3
BALQ2 13:34635Turnover7–3
CLEQ2 10:49616Punt7–3
BALQ2 8:42893Touchdown14–3
CLEQ2 4:1834Punt14–3
BALQ2 2:451294Touchdown21–3
CLEQ2 0:1100End of half21–3
CLEQ3 15:005-16Punt21–3
BALQ3 12:187-2Punt21–3
CLEQ3 7:54821Punt21–3
BALQ3 4:0139Punt21–3
CLEQ3 1:57821Punt21–3
BALQ4 13:2330Punt21–3
CLEQ4 11:48816Turnover21–3
BALQ4 9:36638Touchdown28–3
CLEQ4 5:5631Punt28–3
BALQ4 4:3432Punt28–3
CLEQ4 2:15653Turnover28–3

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson15/1918620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards15483.20
Justice Hill33311.00
Lamar Jackson9273.02
Melvin Gordon3217.00
Tyler Huntley284.00
Zay Flowers1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews55802
Zay Flowers34560
Melvin Gordon11230
Patrick Ricard11140
Devin Duvernay2280
Nelson Agholor1240
Gus Edwards2310

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dorian Thompson-Robinson19/3612103

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Strong5499.80
Jerome Ford9262.90
Dorian Thompson-Robinson4246.00
Kareem Hunt5122.40
Harrison Bryant122.00
Elijah Moore1-20-20.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku67460
Elijah Moore24200
Jerome Ford56190
Amari Cooper16160
Donovan Peoples-Jones1470
Jordan Akins1260
Cedric Tillman1350
Harrison Bryant1120
Marquise Goodwin1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.2%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.59
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.80