Closing spread
BAL -12.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play+0.037
- 35.2%Success rate44.6%
- -0.212EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.115EPA / rush+0.038
- 6.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- -5.66CPOE+2.86
- 33.8%Third-down rate41.4%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.18Points / drive2.30
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/45 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 3/3 | 19 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 2 | 7 | 22 | 1 |
| Dylan Sampson | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19/29 | 225 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 2 | 64 | 1 |
| Devontez Walker | 2 | 2 | 26 | 2 |
| Tylan Wallace | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Zaire Mitchell-Paden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.07
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62