Closing spread
BAL -19.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+9.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.179EPA / play+0.199
- 37.1%Success rate49.4%
- -0.196EPA / dropback+0.328
- -0.140EPA / rush+0.053
- 5.8%Explosive rate12.0%
- -4.22CPOE+4.67
- 28.8%Third-down rate47.9%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
- 1.09Points / drive2.80
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 16/31 | 170 | 1 | 2 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 2/3 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jacob Kibodi | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Bailey Zappe | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 13 | 63 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 6 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jacob Kibodi | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenden Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/32 | 217 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 20 | 138 | 6.9 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 5 | 8 | 76 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.26
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+9.08