2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Bailey Zappe

10·35

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

BAL -19.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+9.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.179EPA / play+0.199
  • 37.1%Success rate49.4%
  • -0.196EPA / dropback+0.328
  • -0.140EPA / rush+0.053
  • 5.8%Explosive rate12.0%
  • -4.22CPOE+4.67
  • 28.8%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
  • 1.09Points / drive2.80
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE
2022 · W7CLE @ BAL20–23BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:00427Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:07633Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:1923Opp touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 8:3249Turnover on downs0–7
BALQ1 6:13630Turnover on downs0–7
CLEQ1 2:41612Punt0–7
BALQ2 14:21847Touchdown0–14
CLEQ2 11:03935Field goal3–14
BALQ2 6:33730Turnover on downs3–14
CLEQ2 2:5538Punt3–14
BALQ2 1:47944Turnover on downs3–14
BALQ3 15:00880Touchdown3–21
CLEQ3 10:4238Punt3–21
BALQ3 9:55837Punt3–21
CLEQ3 6:42414Punt3–21
BALQ3 4:0332Punt3–21
CLEQ3 3:091560Touchdown10–21
BALQ4 11:33875Touchdown10–28
CLEQ4 6:44521Turnover on downs10–28
BALQ4 4:35351Touchdown10–35
CLEQ4 3:04334Turnover10–35
BALQ4 2:1638Punt10–35
CLEQ4 0:2400End of half10–35

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bailey Zappe16/3117012
Dorian Thompson-Robinson2/31300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman10272.70
Jacob Kibodi5244.80
Dorian Thompson-Robinson231.50
Bailey Zappe221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy613630
Jordan Akins68601
Elijah Moore35360
Jacob Kibodi13150
D'Onta Foreman1180
Blake Whiteheart1110
Jamari Thrash0100
Brenden Bates0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson16/3221720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry201386.92
Lamar Jackson9637.00
Keaton Mitchell4102.50
Zay Flowers199.00
Mark Andrews100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashod Bateman58761
Mark Andrews48541
Isaiah Likely35380
Derrick Henry23230
Patrick Ricard11140
Zay Flowers12120
Tylan Wallace0100
Rasheen Ali0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +19.53.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.8%2.5%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.4%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.26
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+9.08