Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.176
- 44.6%Success rate35.2%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.212
- +0.038EPA / rush-0.115
- 10.4%Explosive rate6.1%
- +2.86CPOE-5.66
- 41.4%Third-down rate33.8%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 2.30Points / drive1.18
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/25 | 193 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 3 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel | 7/10 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 4/16 | 47 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Tillman | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gage Larvadain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.20