2025 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

23·16

Browns

Cleveland

QB Dillon Gabriel

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.037EPA / play-0.176
  • 44.6%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback-0.212
  • +0.038EPA / rush-0.115
  • 10.4%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +2.86CPOE-5.66
  • 41.4%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.18
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE
2022 · W7CLE @ BAL20–23BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0049Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:361472Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 4:55855Field goal3–3
BALQ2 15:00415Punt3–3
CLEQ2 12:43420Punt3–3
CLEQ2 10:1630Field goal3–6
BALQ2 8:442-9Opp touchdown3–13
BALQ2 7:43661Touchdown10–13
CLEQ2 4:17737Field goal10–16
BALQ2 0:5838Punt10–16
CLEQ2 0:2612End of half10–16
BALQ3 15:0035Punt10–16
CLEQ3 12:434-1Punt10–16
BALQ3 9:58940Punt10–16
CLEQ3 5:0630Turnover10–16
BALQ3 4:3710Turnover10–16
CLEQ3 4:286-3Punt10–16
BALQ3 1:02463Field goal13–16
CLEQ4 14:06528Punt13–16
BALQ4 10:49954Field goal16–16
CLEQ4 4:5930Punt16–16
BALQ4 4:32444Touchdown23–16
CLEQ4 2:31840Turnover on downs23–16
BALQ4 0:5700End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson14/2519302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry181035.71
Mark Andrews13535.01
Keaton Mitchell6315.20
Lamar Jackson4102.50
Zay Flowers155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers35780
Mark Andrews35320
Keaton Mitchell23230
Derrick Henry22190
Isaiah Likely23150
Rasheen Ali11150
DeAndre Hopkins14110
Tylan Wallace0100
Charlie Kolar0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dillon Gabriel7/106800
Shedeur Sanders4/164701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins17593.50
Dylan Sampson11919.00
Shedeur Sanders3165.30
Isaiah Bond188.00
Jerome Ford122.00
Dillon Gabriel221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cedric Tillman34520
Harold Fannin Jr.25260
Jerry Jeudy37210
Malachi Corley2290
David Njoku1270
Dylan Sampson0100
Gage Larvadain0100
Isaiah Bond0100
Quinshon Judkins0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.56
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.20