2022 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

3·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.013
  • 45.3%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.021
  • +0.034EPA / rush+0.002
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.40CPOE+1.05
  • 42.2%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.91
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W7CLE @ BAL20–23BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:171159Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 6:521364Field goal0–3
BALQ2 14:10728Punt0–3
CLEQ2 11:0732Punt0–3
BALQ2 9:57829Field goal3–3
CLEQ2 5:311071Field goal3–6
BALQ2 1:52954Missed field goal3–6
BALQ3 15:001260Turnover3–6
CLEQ3 8:181376Touchdown3–13
BALQ3 2:10114Turnover3–13
CLEQ3 2:0443Punt3–13
BALQ3 0:43560Missed field goal3–13
CLEQ4 14:02628Missed field goal3–13
BALQ4 10:49623Turnover on downs3–13
CLEQ4 9:30919Missed field goal3–13
BALQ4 4:244-3Turnover on downs3–13
CLEQ4 3:06217End of half3–13

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley17/3013801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins131259.60
Gus Edwards7557.90
Tyler Huntley6152.50
Justice Hill133.00
Patrick Ricard100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews37310
Demarcus Robinson66290
Devin Duvernay23290
Isaiah Likely23180
Justice Hill11150
Josh Oliver22130
J.K. Dobbins1130
DeSean Jackson0300
James Proche0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson18/2816110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb21994.70
Kareem Hunt4246.00
Deshaun Watson6223.70
Jacoby Brissett133.00
Mike Woods1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper46580
Donovan Peoples-Jones44311
David Njoku36280
Daylen Baldwin22250
Harrison Bryant2270
Demetric Felton1150
Mike Woods1240
Kareem Hunt1130
Nick Chubb0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.07
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.28