Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.013
- 45.3%Success rate44.1%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.021
- +0.034EPA / rush+0.002
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.40CPOE+1.05
- 42.2%Third-down rate39.0%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 1.87Points / drive1.91
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 17/30 | 138 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 13 | 125 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 18/28 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 21 | 99 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike Woods | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 4 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Daylen Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Woods | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.28