Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.127EPA / play+0.069
- 39.3%Success rate47.3%
- -0.131EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.121EPA / rush+0.009
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
- -5.66CPOE+2.73
- 32.3%Third-down rate42.3%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.56Points / drive2.25
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 20/34 | 213 | 1 | 1 |
| PJ Walker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 17 | 107 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 5 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13/23 | 223 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 2 | 40 | 1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.75