2023 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

33·31

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BAL -6

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.127EPA / play+0.069
  • 39.3%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.131EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.121EPA / rush+0.009
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -5.66CPOE+2.73
  • 32.3%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.25
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE
2022 · W7CLE @ BAL20–23BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:0024Opp touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 14:20412Punt0–7
BALQ1 12:51574Touchdown0–14
CLEQ1 10:13934Field goal3–14
BALQ1 7:27851Field goal3–17
CLEQ1 3:2935Punt3–17
BALQ1 1:0132Punt3–17
CLEQ2 14:461275Field goal6–17
BALQ2 7:30932Missed field goal6–17
CLEQ2 2:14533Field goal9–17
BALQ2 1:0229Turnover9–17
CLEQ2 0:43711Turnover on downs9–17
BALQ3 15:00678Touchdown9–24
CLEQ3 12:291780Touchdown17–24
BALQ3 2:20420Punt17–24
BALQ4 14:51917Touchdown17–31
CLEQ4 11:34756Touchdown24–31
BALQ4 8:5722Opp touchdown30–31
BALQ4 8:16621Punt30–31
CLEQ4 4:551064Field goal33–31

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson20/3421311
PJ Walker0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford171076.30
Deshaun Watson8374.60
Kareem Hunt10323.21
Harrison Bryant122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper69980
David Njoku69580
Elijah Moore57441
Jordan Akins1180
Harrison Bryant1130
Jerome Ford1120
James Proche0100
Cedric Tillman0300

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson13/2322312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson8415.10
Keaton Mitchell33411.31
Gus Edwards11242.21
Justice Hill273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers56730
Mark Andrews24440
Odell Beckham Jr.12401
Keaton Mitchell12320
Rashod Bateman24250
Isaiah Likely1150
Gus Edwards1140
Nelson Agholor0200
Patrick Ricard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.75