Closing spread
IND -1
Total
44
Model margin
+2.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. SD are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 47 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 11:52 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:50 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 4:08 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q1 1:19 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 11:38 | 3 | -1 | Opp touchdown | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 10:29 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–14 |
| IND | Q2 10:29 | 5 | 36 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 7:52 | 8 | 42 | Punt | 10–14 |
| IND | Q2 3:37 | 3 | 1 | Safety | 10–16 |
| LAC | Q2 2:45 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–16 |
| IND | Q2 1:48 | 11 | 58 | Missed field goal | 10–16 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 44 | Field goal | 10–19 |
| IND | Q3 8:26 | 10 | 35 | Field goal | 13–19 |
| LAC | Q3 4:13 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 13–19 |
| IND | Q3 1:59 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–19 |
| LAC | Q3 1:04 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 13–19 |
| IND | Q4 14:28 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 20–19 |
| LAC | Q4 11:41 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–19 |
| IND | Q4 10:32 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 20–19 |
| LAC | Q4 8:53 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 20–19 |
| IND | Q4 7:35 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 27–19 |
| LAC | Q4 2:34 | 15 | 51 | Turnover | 27–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 29/53 | 404 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 17 | 46 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 13 | 21 | 196 | 1 |
| Jerome Pathon | 4 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| E.G. Green | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.