Closing spread
IND -1
Total
44
Model margin
+2.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. SD are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 29/53 | 404 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 17 | 46 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 13 | 21 | 196 | 1 |
| Jerome Pathon | 4 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| E.G. Green | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.