Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
49
Model margin
-0.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. SD are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:28 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:33 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:01 | 9 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:59 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 12:33 | 4 | 44 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q2 10:15 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 6:46 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 4:41 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 3:01 | 6 | 45 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| IND | Q2 0:42 | 6 | 18 | End of half | 10–14 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q3 12:26 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 10–14 |
| IND | Q3 9:42 | 5 | 86 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q3 8:10 | 11 | 78 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| IND | Q3 2:05 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q3 0:58 | 7 | 24 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| IND | Q4 12:17 | 12 | 42 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q4 5:58 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 17–14 |
| IND | Q4 2:41 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q4 1:48 | 5 | 30 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| IND | Q4 0:31 | 4 | 12 | End of half | 17–17 |
| LAC | OT | 13 | 50 | Touchdown | 17–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/42 | 310 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.