Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-3.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.154
- 44.1%Success rate40.3%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.181
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.13CPOE-1.42
- 43.5%Third-down rate33.3%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
- 1.97Points / drive1.33
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. IND are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 24/31 | 235 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 11 | 14 | 104 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 4 | 76 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 17/29 | 144 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jelani Woods | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.85
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.00