2022 · Week 16

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

20·3

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Nick Foles

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-3.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapColts
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.154
  • 44.1%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.139
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.181
  • 6.9%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.13CPOE-1.42
  • 43.5%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.33
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 8–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. IND are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7IND @ LAC38–24IND
2019 · W1IND @ LAC24–30CHARGERS
2016 · W3SD @ IND22–26IND
2013 · W6IND @ SD9–19CHARGERS
2010 · W12SD @ IND36–14CHARGERS
2008 · playoffsIND @ SD17–23CHARGERS
2008 · W12IND @ SD23–20IND
2007 · playoffsSD @ IND28–24CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–IND
INDQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:2039Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:39847Turnover0–0
LACQ1 8:1338Turnover0–0
INDQ1 7:28510Turnover0–0
LACQ1 4:4831Punt0–0
INDQ1 3:253-4Punt0–0
LACQ1 1:071370Touchdown7–0
INDQ2 8:41941Field goal7–3
LACQ2 4:211274Field goal10–3
LACQ3 15:00630Punt10–3
INDQ3 11:3833Turnover10–3
LACQ3 10:03723Field goal13–3
INDQ3 6:0158Punt13–3
LACQ3 2:5233Turnover13–3
INDQ3 1:3149Turnover on downs13–3
LACQ4 14:531293Touchdown20–3
INDQ4 8:20623Turnover on downs20–3
LACQ4 6:0436Punt20–3
INDQ4 4:59633Turnover on downs20–3
LACQ4 1:5500End of half20–3

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert24/3123501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler18673.72
Joshua Kelley9333.70
Justin Herbert510.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen11141040
Mike Williams44760
Josh Palmer23160
Austin Ekeler44120
Tre' McKitty12100
Joshua Kelley1190
Donald Parham1280

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles17/2914403

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss12655.40
Jordan Wilkins144.00
Nick Foles100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jelani Woods35430
Michael Pittman47390
Alec Pierce34260
Parris Campbell25190
Deon Jackson3390
Zack Moss1150
Mo Alie-Cox1220
Jordan Wilkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.85
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-3.00