Closing spread
IND -2
Total
50
Model margin
+3.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutPatrick CraytonWRWrist· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulRyan MathewsRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEToe· DNP
- QuestionableDonald StricklandCBHip· DNP
- QuestionableKris WilsonTEBack· Limited
- QuestionableLouis VasquezGNeck· DNP
- QuestionableMalcom FloydWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableSteve GregorySShoulder· Full
- QuestionableTravis JohnsonDEShoulder· Limited
- ProbableRandy McMichaelTEHamstring· Limited
- ProbableJacob HesterRBFoot· Full
- ProbableLegedu NaaneeWRHamstring· Full
Colts
- OutAustin CollieWRConcussion· Limited
- OutBob SandersCBBiceps· DNP
- DoubtfulJoseph AddaiRBNeck· DNP
- QuestionableBrody EldridgeTERib· DNP
- QuestionableClint SessionLBElbow· DNP
- QuestionableGary BrackettLBToe· DNP
- QuestionableJavarris JamesRBKnee· Full
- QuestionableJustin TryonCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableMike HartRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableReggie WayneWRKnee· Full
Win probability
- Colts
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. IND are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:16 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| IND | Q1 3:22 | 3 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 10–7 |
| IND | Q1 2:00 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:50 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| IND | Q2 10:04 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:06 | 4 | 26 | Field goal | 16–7 |
| IND | Q2 4:39 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 16–7 |
| LAC | Q2 2:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 16–7 |
| IND | Q2 1:36 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:22 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 16–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 19–14 |
| IND | Q3 9:18 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 26–14 |
| IND | Q3 8:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 26–14 |
| LAC | Q3 7:02 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 26–14 |
| IND | Q3 4:52 | 7 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 26–14 |
| LAC | Q3 2:27 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 33–14 |
| IND | Q4 11:26 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 33–14 |
| LAC | Q4 10:37 | 7 | 31 | Field goal | 36–14 |
| IND | Q4 5:25 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 36–14 |
| LAC | Q4 4:01 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 36–14 |
| IND | Q4 2:55 | 8 | 42 | Turnover | 36–14 |
| LAC | Q4 0:50 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 36–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/48 | 285 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Javarris James | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 7 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 14 | 42 | 0 |
| Blair White | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Javarris James | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon James | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.