Closing spread
IND -2
Total
50
Model margin
+3.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. IND are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/48 | 285 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Javarris James | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 7 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 14 | 42 | 0 |
| Blair White | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Javarris James | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon James | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.