Closing spread
LAC -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.036
- 44.5%Success rate47.3%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.118
- +0.022EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.86CPOE+3.58
- 41.9%Third-down rate45.5%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.94Points / drive1.99
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. LAC are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/27 | 190 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 25 | 174 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 8 | 9 | 87 | 2 |
| Deon Cain | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 25/34 | 333 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 10 | 123 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 7 | 96 | 2 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.26