2019 · Week 1

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

24·30

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

LAC -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapChargers
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.036
  • 44.5%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.118
  • +0.022EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -3.86CPOE+3.58
  • 41.9%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.99
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 8–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. LAC are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7IND @ LAC38–24IND
2022 · W16LAC @ IND20–3CHARGERS
2016 · W3SD @ IND22–26IND
2013 · W6IND @ SD9–19CHARGERS
2010 · W12SD @ IND36–14CHARGERS
2008 · playoffsIND @ SD17–23CHARGERS
2008 · W12IND @ SD23–20IND
2007 · playoffsSD @ IND28–24CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–LAC
LACQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:4555Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:101166Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 2:551475Touchdown6–7
LACQ2 10:02780Touchdown6–14
INDQ2 5:5832Punt6–14
LACQ2 4:19924Field goal6–17
INDQ2 1:02451Missed field goal6–17
INDQ3 15:00749Field goal9–17
LACQ3 11:15570Touchdown9–24
INDQ3 8:27275Touchdown16–24
LACQ3 7:40517Punt16–24
INDQ3 4:04523Punt16–24
INDQ3 0:35616Missed field goal16–24
LACQ4 13:28983Turnover16–24
INDQ4 8:301680Touchdown24–24
LACQ4 0:38622End of half24–24
LACOT875Touchdown24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett21/2719020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack251747.01
Nyheim Hines4133.30
Jacoby Brissett393.00
Parris Campbell177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton89872
Deon Cain22350
Devin Funchess35320
Jack Doyle12200
Eric Ebron1380
Nyheim Hines4440
Mo Alie-Cox1130
Parris Campbell1110

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers25/3433331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler12584.81
Justin Jackson6579.50
Philip Rivers166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen8101231
Austin Ekeler67962
Hunter Henry45600
Mike Williams23290
Travis Benjamin23120
Dontrelle Inman1150
Virgil Green1140
Justin Jackson1340
Tyrod Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.26