Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play-0.016
- 46.6%Success rate43.6%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.021
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.62CPOE+0.01
- 43.0%Third-down rate46.7%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 2.74Points / drive2.10
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. LAC are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 23/34 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 16 | 94 | 5.9 | 3 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 5 | 10 | 98 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 4 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 9 | 58 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony Gould | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 37/55 | 420 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden II | 7 | 9 | 164 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 11 | 14 | 119 | 1 |
| Ladd McConkey | 9 | 15 | 67 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Tre Harris | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.36