2025 · Week 7

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

38·24

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapChargers
  • +0.083EPA / play-0.016
  • 46.6%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.021
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.080
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.62CPOE+0.01
  • 43.0%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 2.74Points / drive2.10
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 8–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. LAC are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16LAC @ IND20–3CHARGERS
2019 · W1IND @ LAC24–30CHARGERS
2016 · W3SD @ IND22–26IND
2013 · W6IND @ SD9–19CHARGERS
2010 · W12SD @ IND36–14CHARGERS
2008 · playoffsIND @ SD17–23CHARGERS
2008 · W12IND @ SD23–20IND
2007 · playoffsSD @ IND28–24CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–LAC
INDQ1 15:00575Touchdown6–0
LACQ1 12:36924Field goal6–3
INDQ1 7:351770Touchdown13–3
LACQ2 14:54420Punt13–3
INDQ2 13:30970Touchdown20–3
LACQ2 8:56537Turnover20–3
INDQ2 6:383-3Punt20–3
LACQ2 5:42960Turnover20–3
INDQ2 1:54762Field goal23–3
LACQ3 15:00670Touchdown23–10
INDQ3 13:01214Touchdown31–10
LACQ3 12:031181Touchdown31–17
INDQ3 6:13573Touchdown38–17
LACQ3 3:331176Touchdown38–24
INDQ4 13:4038Punt38–24
LACQ4 12:412177Turnover on downs38–24
INDQ4 3:27435End of half38–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones23/3428820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor16945.93
Ameer Abdullah2199.50
Daniel Jones571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce510980
Tyler Warren45691
Michael Pittman79581
Jonathan Taylor33380
Ameer Abdullah1180
Adonai Mitchell1180
Mo Alie-Cox1260
Anthony Gould1130

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert37/5542032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert6315.20
Kimani Vidal9202.20
Hassan Haskins133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden II791641
Keenan Allen11141191
Ladd McConkey915670
Quentin Johnston26301
Tre Harris22230
Kimani Vidal45150
Hassan Haskins2220
Will Dissly0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.36