Closing spread
SD -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. SD are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:16 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:49 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 7:22 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 1:42 | 8 | 66 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| IND | Q2 11:43 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 9:31 | 9 | 89 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| IND | Q2 4:56 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:38 | 5 | 26 | End of half | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 46 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| IND | Q3 11:01 | 13 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q3 3:51 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 17–10 |
| IND | Q3 0:58 | 14 | 45 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q4 11:48 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| IND | Q4 5:36 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–17 |
| LAC | Q4 3:15 | 7 | 63 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| IND | Q4 1:30 | 6 | 37 | Field goal | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 32/44 | 255 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.