Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. IND are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 24/37 | 331 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Josh Ferguson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 8 | 11 | 174 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 6 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.