Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutJahleel AddaeSCollarbone· DNP
- OutJoey BosaDEHamstring· Limited
- DoubtfulAntonio GatesTEHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableOrlando FranklinGHamstring· Full
Colts
- OutDarius ButlerCBHamstring· DNP
- OutDenzelle GoodTBack· DNP
- OutDonte MoncriefWRShoulder· DNP
- OutPatrick RobinsonCBConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableAndrew LuckQBRight Shoulder· Full
- QuestionableClayton GeathersSFoot· Limited
- QuestionableRyan KellyCShoulder· Full
- QuestionableT.J. GreenSKnee· Full
- QuestionableT.Y. HiltonWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableTrent ColeLBBack· Full
- QuestionableVontae DavisCBAnkle· Full
- DNPErik WaldenLBNot Injury Related
- DNPRobert TurbinRBNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Colts
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. IND are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 8:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 7:04 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 3:39 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| IND | Q2 14:51 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 14:36 | 4 | 0 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| IND | Q2 14:04 | 11 | 60 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| LAC | Q2 6:25 | 9 | 58 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| IND | Q2 1:50 | 4 | 28 | Opp touchdown | 13–13 |
| IND | Q2 0:55 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 13–13 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 19–13 |
| IND | Q3 8:23 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 19–20 |
| LAC | Q3 2:39 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 19–20 |
| IND | Q3 1:32 | 10 | 30 | Punt | 19–20 |
| LAC | Q4 11:59 | 8 | 88 | Field goal | 22–20 |
| IND | Q4 7:34 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 22–20 |
| LAC | Q4 6:38 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 22–20 |
| IND | Q4 2:29 | 6 | 83 | Touchdown | 22–26 |
| LAC | Q4 1:17 | 2 | 18 | Turnover | 22–26 |
| IND | Q4 1:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 22–26 |
| LAC | Q4 0:00 | 1 | 20 | Turnover | 22–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 24/37 | 331 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Josh Ferguson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 8 | 11 | 174 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 6 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.