Closing spread
IND -1
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. SD are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 18/30 | 202 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.