Closing spread
PK
Total
47.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.016
- 44.6%Success rate40.8%
- +0.128EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.154
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- 44.4%Third-down rate36.6%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.72Points / drive1.48
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.019
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 12:03 | 15 | 87 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 4:26 | 11 | 80 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q2 14:07 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–3 |
| GB | Q2 11:39 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q2 8:24 | 4 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 7–10 |
| GB | Q2 7:37 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q2 7:37 | 15 | 48 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| GB | Q2 0:50 | 4 | -2 | End of half | 10–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 61 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| GB | Q3 9:17 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| MIN | Q3 3:05 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 13–13 |
| GB | Q3 0:40 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 13–13 |
| MIN | Q4 12:38 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 13–13 |
| GB | Q4 10:12 | 13 | 69 | Field goal | 13–16 |
| MIN | Q4 4:25 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–16 |
| GB | Q4 1:56 | 7 | 77 | Touchdown | 20–23 |
| MIN | Q4 0:12 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 18/32 | 244 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Reed | 6 | 8 | 108 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 4 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| David Palmer | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/38 | 304 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 18 | 49 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 5 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 9 | 11 | 84 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 4 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.68