Closing spread
MIN -1.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+14.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.181EPA / play+0.055
- 38.2%Success rate37.7%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.208
- -0.438EPA / rush-0.125
- 13.2%Explosive rate3.3%
- -9.65CPOE-4.89
- 25.0%Third-down rate57.1%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 1.91Points / drive2.90
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 21/42 | 387 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarShawn Lloyd | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 6 | 8 | 147 | 2 |
| Matthew Golden | 6 | 12 | 95 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 3 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 12/19 | 133 | 3 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 3/5 | 18 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 9 | 92 | 2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
83.1%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+12.11
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+14.33