2026 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

22·39

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kyler Murray

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -1.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.099
  • 40.0%Success rate36.7%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.266EPA / rush-0.195
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.28CPOE+0.39
  • 36.3%Third-down rate38.6%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
  • 1.96Points / drive1.65
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB
2022 · W1GB @ MIN7–23MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
MINQ1 15:002-1Turnover0–0
GBQ1 14:14517Field goal3–0
MINQ1 12:11625Punt3–0
GBQ1 7:56281Touchdown9–0
MINQ1 7:431135Field goal9–3
GBQ1 1:38620Field goal12–3
MINQ2 13:52612Punt12–3
GBQ2 10:34437Punt12–3
MINQ2 8:2031Punt12–3
GBQ2 5:5640Punt12–3
MINQ2 5:18765Touchdown12–10
GBQ2 1:55774Touchdown19–10
MINQ2 0:1400End of half19–10
GBQ3 15:00524Punt19–10
MINQ3 12:0334Punt19–10
GBQ3 10:551179Field goal22–10
MINQ3 5:09628Touchdown22–17
GBQ3 2:08849Turnover on downs22–17
MINQ4 13:111255Touchdown22–25
GBQ4 6:373-22Turnover22–31
MINQ4 4:5211Touchdown22–32
GBQ4 4:4827Turnover22–32
MINQ4 4:13314Touchdown22–39
GBQ4 3:551153Turnover on downs22–39
MINQ4 1:2813End of half22–39

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love21/4238721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
MarShawn Lloyd13372.80
Chris Brooks7294.10
Jordan Love100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson681472
Matthew Golden612950
Tucker Kraft36650
Jonnu Smith23500
Jayden Reed37200
Bo Melton11100
Skyy Moore0100
Chris Brooks0100
MarShawn Lloyd0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz12/1913330
Kyler Murray3/51801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason15593.91
Aaron Jones12403.31
Kyler Murray294.50
Carson Wentz5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson89922
T.J. Hockenson45361
Josh Oliver24220
DeeJay Dallas1110
Aaron Jones0100
Jauan Jennings0100
Jordan Addison0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.40