Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Vikings
- OutIvan PaceLBAnkle· DNP
- DNPHarrison SmithSNot injury related - resting player
- DNPStephon GilmoreCBNot injury related - resting player
- NoteTrent SherfieldWRTrent Sherfield Sr. did not travel with the team today for personal reasons. He is traveling separately and is expected to be available for Sunday’s game.
Packers
- OutJordan MorganTShoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulCarrington ValentineCBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJaire AlexanderCBQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableJordan LoveQBKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.081
- 46.3%Success rate44.8%
- +0.135EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.030
- 9.6%Explosive rate11.7%
- +4.00CPOE+1.37
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.6%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.09Points / drive2.38
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 11:53 | 9 | 56 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 6:47 | 11 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| GB | Q1 1:37 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| MIN | Q1 0:20 | 7 | 46 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| GB | Q2 11:50 | 7 | 19 | Missed field goal | 21–0 |
| MIN | Q2 8:04 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–0 |
| GB | Q2 7:01 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 21–0 |
| MIN | Q2 5:55 | 2 | 14 | Touchdown | 28–0 |
| GB | Q2 5:28 | 10 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 28–0 |
| MIN | Q2 2:03 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 28–0 |
| GB | Q2 1:11 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 28–0 |
| GB | Q2 0:39 | 2 | 17 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| MIN | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–7 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 28–7 |
| MIN | Q3 13:53 | 7 | 62 | Turnover | 28–7 |
| GB | Q3 10:18 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 28–7 |
| MIN | Q3 9:16 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 28–7 |
| GB | Q3 6:28 | 10 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 28–7 |
| MIN | Q3 3:02 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 28–7 |
| GB | Q3 0:33 | 11 | 89 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| MIN | Q4 11:38 | 2 | -6 | Turnover | 28–14 |
| GB | Q4 10:43 | 2 | 20 | Touchdown | 28–22 |
| MIN | Q4 10:16 | 6 | 55 | Field goal | 31–22 |
| GB | Q4 6:50 | 2 | 36 | Turnover | 31–22 |
| MIN | Q4 6:13 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 31–22 |
| GB | Q4 4:31 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 31–22 |
| MIN | Q4 4:18 | 8 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 31–22 |
| GB | Q4 2:18 | 5 | 96 | Touchdown | 31–29 |
| MIN | Q4 0:56 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20/28 | 275 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 22 | 93 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 85 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 4 | 72 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 32/54 | 389 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 9 | 51 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 7 | 8 | 139 | 1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 13 | 78 | 2 |
| Tucker Kraft | 6 | 9 | 53 | 1 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.11