Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.081
- 46.3%Success rate44.8%
- +0.135EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.030
- 9.6%Explosive rate11.7%
- +4.00CPOE+1.37
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.6%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.09Points / drive2.38
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20/28 | 275 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 22 | 93 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 85 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 4 | 72 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 32/54 | 389 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 9 | 51 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 7 | 8 | 139 | 1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 13 | 78 | 2 |
| Tucker Kraft | 6 | 9 | 53 | 1 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.11