2024 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

25·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

GB -1

Total

49

Model margin

+0.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.038
  • 44.8%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.135
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.119
  • 11.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.37CPOE+4.00
  • 37.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.38Points / drive2.09
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB
2022 · W1GB @ MIN7–23MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
GBQ1 15:00529Turnover0–0
MINQ1 12:10517Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:2330Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:00626Missed field goal0–0
GBQ1 6:02739Field goal3–0
MINQ1 1:47982Touchdown3–7
GBQ2 11:52935Turnover on downs3–7
MINQ2 7:291052Field goal3–10
GBQ2 2:1649Punt3–10
MINQ2 1:16547Field goal3–13
MINQ3 15:00975Touchdown3–20
GBQ3 9:4436Punt3–20
MINQ3 7:552-1Turnover3–20
GBQ3 7:03416Touchdown10–20
MINQ3 5:07870Touchdown10–27
GBQ3 0:5173Punt10–27
MINQ4 13:22744Missed field goal10–27
GBQ4 9:181077Touchdown18–27
MINQ4 6:1245Punt18–27
GBQ4 4:37957Touchdown25–27
MINQ4 2:18427End of half25–27

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love19/3018510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs17694.11
Emanuel Wilson6294.81
Jordan Love166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs711580
Tucker Kraft23530
Dontayvion Wicks45430
Bo Melton34180
Jayden Reed1460
Luke Musgrave1140
Malik Heath1131

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold33/4337731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones12473.90
Cam Akers6183.00
Ty Chandler571.40
Sam Darnold3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson811920
Jalen Nailor55811
Jordan Addison68691
T.J. Hockenson56680
Aaron Jones45300
Cam Akers23151
Johnny Mundt1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.38