Closing spread
GB -1
Total
49
Model margin
+0.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.038
- 44.8%Success rate46.3%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.135
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.119
- 11.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.37CPOE+4.00
- 37.6%Third-down rate39.7%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.38Points / drive2.09
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 19/30 | 185 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 7 | 11 | 58 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 33/43 | 377 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 11 | 92 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 5 | 5 | 81 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 6 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.38