Closing spread
GB -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.017
- 45.8%Success rate46.2%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
- +1.66CPOE+0.52
- 40.7%Third-down rate39.3%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 2.04Points / drive1.91
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/31 | 205 | 1 | 3 |
| Nick Mullens | 4/4 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 3 | 89 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 7 | 12 | 59 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 7 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15/24 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2/3 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 111 | 7.9 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Patrick Taylor | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 4 | 52 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.36