2022 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

17·41

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.017
  • 45.8%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.009
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +1.66CPOE+0.52
  • 40.7%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.91
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W1GB @ MIN7–23MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
MINQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:2637Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:503-1Field goal3–6
GBQ1 10:3800Touchdown3–7
MINQ1 10:2530Punt3–7
GBQ1 9:2557Turnover on downs3–7
MINQ1 6:3248Opp touchdown3–14
MINQ1 5:17739Missed field goal3–14
GBQ1 1:371361Field goal3–17
MINQ2 9:48740Turnover3–17
GBQ2 5:52670Touchdown3–24
MINQ2 2:41946Missed field goal3–24
GBQ2 0:36223Field goal3–27
GBQ3 15:00516Punt3–27
MINQ3 12:40970Turnover3–27
GBQ3 7:061371Touchdown3–34
MINQ4 14:5410Turnover3–34
GBQ4 14:40845Touchdown3–41
MINQ4 9:25459Touchdown10–41
GBQ4 7:36616Punt10–41
MINQ4 3:58879Touchdown17–41
GBQ4 0:2100End of half17–41

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins18/3120513
Nick Mullens4/45710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison8384.80
Kirk Cousins33712.30
Dalvin Cook9273.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Nailor33891
T.J. Hockenson712590
K.J. Osborn77591
Dalvin Cook23170
Adam Thielen14160
Justin Jefferson15150
Alexander Mattison1170

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers15/2415910
Jordan Love2/3900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones141117.90
AJ Dillon12413.41
Patrick Taylor5102.00
Aaron Rodgers122.01
Jordan Love1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard56590
Robert Tonyan34521
Randall Cobb22200
Romeo Doubs34200
Christian Watson15110
Josiah Deguara1140
Aaron Jones2320
AJ Dillon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.36