2025 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB J.J. McCarthy

6·23

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • -0.094EPA / play+0.122
  • 43.3%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.115EPA / dropback+0.274
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -2.84CPOE+5.62
  • 32.4%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.39
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB
2022 · W1GB @ MIN7–23MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
MINQ1 15:00631Field goal3–0
GBQ1 12:53846Touchdown3–7
MINQ1 9:15620Punt3–7
GBQ1 5:04927Punt3–7
MINQ1 1:031058Turnover on downs3–7
GBQ2 10:261368Field goal3–10
MINQ2 2:25732Field goal6–10
GBQ2 0:1000End of half6–10
GBQ3 15:00622Punt6–10
GBQ3 11:3725Touchdown6–17
MINQ3 10:5332Punt6–17
GBQ3 8:45729Punt6–17
MINQ3 4:213-12Punt6–17
GBQ3 2:05743Field goal6–20
MINQ4 12:133-12Punt6–20
GBQ4 10:17424Field goal6–23
MINQ4 7:3610Turnover6–23
GBQ4 7:3031Punt6–23
MINQ4 5:46526Turnover6–23
GBQ4 3:37525End of half6–23

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.J. McCarthy12/198702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason8425.30
Aaron Jones9414.60
J.J. McCarthy2105.00
T.J. Hockenson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson46480
T.J. Hockenson44190
Aaron Jones34160
Josh Oliver1140
Adam Thielen0100
Jalen Nailor0100
Jordan Addison0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love14/2113900
Malik Willis1/1700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emanuel Wilson281073.82
Chris Brooks8212.60
Jordan Love3155.00
Malik Willis231.50
Savion Williams100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson57490
Dontayvion Wicks24320
Romeo Doubs23230
Emanuel Wilson22180
John FitzPatrick11110
Luke Musgrave1270
Chris Brooks1150
Josh Whyle1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.26