Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.122
- 43.3%Success rate48.0%
- -0.115EPA / dropback+0.274
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- -2.84CPOE+5.62
- 32.4%Third-down rate48.8%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.75Points / drive2.39
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 12/19 | 87 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 14/21 | 139 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | 28 | 107 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Chris Brooks | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Savion Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.26