2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Clayton Tune

3·16

Vikings

Minnesota

QB J.J. McCarthy

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -12.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+9.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.122EPA / play-0.094
  • 48.0%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.274EPA / dropback-0.115
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.062
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +5.62CPOE-2.84
  • 48.8%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.75
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB
2022 · W1GB @ MIN7–23MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
MINQ1 15:00761Field goal0–3
GBQ1 10:2731Punt0–3
MINQ1 9:02420Punt0–3
GBQ1 6:2542Punt0–3
MINQ1 4:00616Punt0–3
GBQ1 0:3747Punt0–3
MINQ2 13:3434Punt0–3
GBQ2 12:34617Punt0–3
MINQ2 9:041384Field goal0–6
GBQ2 3:023-14Punt0–6
MINQ2 1:47959Touchdown0–13
GBQ2 0:2300End of half0–13
GBQ3 15:00726Punt0–13
MINQ3 10:35519Punt0–13
GBQ3 7:08833Punt0–13
MINQ3 1:521137Turnover0–13
GBQ4 11:233-6Punt0–13
MINQ4 9:44963Field goal0–16
GBQ4 4:091256Field goal3–16

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Clayton Tune6/113400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Brooks13614.70
Emanuel Wilson18442.40
Clayton Tune4235.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobie Keeney-James22150
Matthew Golden1380
Josh Whyle1140
Emanuel Wilson1140
Drake Dabney1230
Bo Melton0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.J. McCarthy14/2318200
Max Brosmer7/85700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason14946.70
Ty Chandler10232.30
Zavier Scott393.00
J.J. McCarthy273.50
Justin Jefferson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson8111010
Jalen Nailor33490
Josh Oliver22290
Ben Sims14180
Ty Chandler34110
Ben Yurosek1190
Zavier Scott1180
Jordan Addison1380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.56.8%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

73.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.40
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+9.71