Closing spread
MIN -12.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+9.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.122EPA / play-0.094
- 48.0%Success rate43.3%
- +0.274EPA / dropback-0.115
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.062
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- +5.62CPOE-2.84
- 48.8%Third-down rate32.4%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.39Points / drive1.75
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Tune | 6/11 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brooks | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobie Keeney-James | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Drake Dabney | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 14/23 | 182 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Brosmer | 7/8 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 14 | 94 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 11 | 101 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Ben Yurosek | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+7.40
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+9.71