Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.025
- 45.1%Success rate43.2%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.158
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.07CPOE+2.80
- 47.4%Third-down rate37.5%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 2.16Points / drive1.84
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 24/33 | 256 | 3 | 0 |
| Sean Clifford | 1/1 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 20 | 120 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Sean Clifford | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Melton | 6 | 9 | 105 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 6 | 8 | 89 | 2 |
| Tucker Kraft | 6 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 13/22 | 113 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaren Hall | 5/10 | 67 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Chandler | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jaren Hall | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 4 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.82