2023 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

33·10

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Jaren Hall

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.075EPA / play-0.025
  • 45.1%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.039
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.158
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.07CPOE+2.80
  • 47.4%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.84
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB
2022 · W1GB @ MIN7–23MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
GBQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
MINQ1 14:0139Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:361164Field goal3–0
MINQ1 6:4323Turnover3–0
GBQ1 5:58233Touchdown10–0
MINQ1 5:10519Punt10–0
GBQ1 2:28845Turnover on downs10–0
MINQ2 13:19640Field goal10–3
GBQ2 9:251067Touchdown17–3
MINQ2 3:59512Punt17–3
GBQ2 1:47416Punt17–3
MINQ2 0:3920Turnover17–3
GBQ2 0:26337Touchdown23–3
MINQ2 0:0800End of half23–3
MINQ3 15:001158Turnover on downs23–3
GBQ3 8:491390Touchdown30–3
MINQ3 0:49312Punt30–3
MINQ4 14:5027Touchdown30–10
GBQ4 14:061257Field goal33–10
MINQ4 6:111352Turnover on downs33–10
GBQ4 2:56660End of half33–10

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love24/3325630
Sean Clifford1/13700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones201206.00
Patrick Taylor8303.80
AJ Dillon7273.90
Jordan Love221.01
Sean Clifford2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bo Melton691051
Jayden Reed68892
Tucker Kraft66480
Romeo Doubs36280
Malik Heath12130
Aaron Jones11100
Ben Sims1160
Samori Toure11-60

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens13/2211310
Jaren Hall5/106701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Chandler10404.00
Alexander Mattison3175.70
Nick Mullens166.00
Jaren Hall242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson510590
Johnny Mundt47391
Jordan Addison35280
Ty Chandler33240
Josh Oliver12170
Alexander Mattison22130
Brandon Powell0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.82