Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.075
- 43.2%Success rate45.1%
- +0.039EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.80CPOE+1.07
- 37.5%Third-down rate47.4%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.84Points / drive2.16
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/31 | 274 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaren Hall | 3/4 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 16 | 31 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jaren Hall | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.J. Osborn | 8 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 7 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 24/41 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 9 | 18 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.74
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.14