2023 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

24·10

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • -0.025EPA / play+0.075
  • 43.2%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.054
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +2.80CPOE+1.07
  • 37.5%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.16
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB
2022 · W1GB @ MIN7–23MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:0059Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:381042Missed field goal0–0
GBQ1 7:0734Punt0–0
MINQ1 6:07952Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 1:3432Punt7–0
MINQ2 14:53968Field goal10–0
GBQ2 10:13411Punt10–0
MINQ2 8:14620Punt10–0
GBQ2 4:561571Field goal10–3
MINQ3 15:001375Touchdown17–3
GBQ3 9:2532Turnover23–3
MINQ3 7:53120Touchdown24–3
GBQ3 7:481575Touchdown24–10
MINQ3 2:391345Missed field goal24–10
GBQ4 9:42946Turnover on downs24–10
MINQ4 7:1532Turnover24–10
GBQ4 5:5449Turnover on downs24–10
MINQ4 4:46623Punt24–10
GBQ4 2:41741Turnover on downs24–10
MINQ4 1:1700End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins23/3127420
Jaren Hall3/42300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison16311.90
Cam Akers9192.11
Kirk Cousins294.50
Brandon Powell122.00
Jordan Addison122.00
Jaren Hall2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
K.J. Osborn810990
T.J. Hockenson69881
Jordan Addison78821
Brandon Powell13100
Johnny Mundt1180
Cam Akers1160
Alexander Mattison1120

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love24/4122911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Love4348.50
Aaron Jones7294.10
AJ Dillon6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jayden Reed46830
AJ Dillon55410
Christian Watson38330
Dontayvion Wicks24280
Romeo Doubs49181
Aaron Jones45170
Luke Musgrave2390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.74
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.14