Closing spread
NE -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.107
- 38.6%Success rate37.4%
- -0.016EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.179
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- 35.7%Third-down rate35.1%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.14Points / drive1.19
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.039EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 3-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 13:38 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 7:48 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q1 5:22 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 3:51 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q1 0:00 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 11:53 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q2 8:21 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NE | Q2 5:35 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q2 3:37 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NE | Q2 0:17 | 3 | 21 | End of half | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NE | Q3 13:43 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| NYG | Q3 8:55 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 7–10 |
| NE | Q3 6:50 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| NYG | Q3 1:32 | 14 | 36 | Missed field goal | 7–13 |
| NE | Q4 9:07 | 11 | 45 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| NYG | Q4 3:12 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–16 |
| NE | Q4 1:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 23/36 | 216 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeShon Johnson | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 7 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Pete Mitchell | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| LeShon Johnson | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Howard Cross | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| David Patten | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 20/28 | 233 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 20 | 50 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 5 | 9 | 95 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96