Closing spread
NE -16.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play+0.010
- 41.8%Success rate42.6%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.92CPOE-2.06
- 37.8%Third-down rate39.1%
- 69.6%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.56Points / drive1.85
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 3-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 15/31 | 161 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Hilliman | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 6 | 9 | 102 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Hilliman | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/41 | 334 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 2 |
| James White | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 15 | 113 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| James White | 9 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.61