2019 · Week 6

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

14·35

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -16.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.064EPA / play+0.010
  • 41.8%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -1.92CPOE-2.06
  • 37.8%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 69.6%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.85
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 3-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13NYG @ NE15–33NE
2023 · W12NE @ NYG7–10NYG
2015 · W10NE @ NYG27–26NE
2011 · playoffsNYG @ NE21–17NYG
2011 · W9NYG @ NE24–20NYG
2007 · playoffsNYG @ NE17–14NYG
2007 · W17NE @ NYG38–35NE
2003 · W6NYG @ NE6–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NE
NEQ1 15:00753Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 11:1539Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:4436Punt0–0
NYGQ1 7:5423Turnover0–0
NEQ1 7:0710Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 6:4735Punt0–0
NEQ1 5:23624Punt0–0
NYGQ1 3:3131Opp touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 1:41627Punt0–7
NEQ2 13:58728Punt0–7
NYGQ2 10:46310Turnover0–7
NEQ2 9:26525Touchdown0–14
NYGQ2 7:11375Touchdown7–14
NEQ2 6:05317Opp touchdown14–14
NEQ2 4:381175Touchdown14–21
NYGQ2 0:3600End of half14–21
NYGQ3 15:00648Turnover14–21
NEQ3 12:121860Missed field goal14–21
NYGQ3 2:47728Punt14–21
NEQ4 15:00948Turnover on downs14–21
NYGQ4 9:283-7Opp touchdown14–28
NYGQ4 8:3338Punt14–28
NEQ4 6:58763Touchdown14–35
NYGQ4 3:4977Turnover on downs14–35
NEQ4 2:47228End of half14–35

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones15/3116113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jon Hilliman11383.50
Daniel Jones284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate691021
Darius Slayton38320
Rhett Ellison37300
Cody Latimer0100
Jon Hilliman22-30

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady31/4133401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel22863.90
Brandon Bolden3237.71
Tom Brady760.92
James White2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman9151130
Jakobi Meyers44540
James White99460
Gunner Olszewski23340
Ryan Izzo24310
Sony Michel23270
Brandon Bolden22220
Josh Gordon1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +16.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.61