2025 · Week 13

Final

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

15·33

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 30°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.154
  • 42.9%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback+0.308
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.089
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -1.30CPOE+10.94
  • 39.6%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 2.06Points / drive2.47
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 3-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12NE @ NYG7–10NYG
2019 · W6NYG @ NE14–35NE
2015 · W10NE @ NYG27–26NE
2011 · playoffsNYG @ NE21–17NYG
2011 · W9NYG @ NE24–20NYG
2007 · playoffsNYG @ NE17–14NYG
2007 · W17NE @ NYG38–35NE
2003 · W6NYG @ NE6–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NE
NEQ1 15:001149Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 9:14515Opp touchdown0–10
NYGQ1 5:17314Punt0–10
NEQ1 3:38561Touchdown0–17
NYGQ1 1:00747Touchdown7–17
NEQ2 12:4639Punt7–17
NYGQ2 10:38919Turnover on downs7–17
NEQ2 6:22668Touchdown7–24
NYGQ2 3:2900Field goal7–24
NEQ2 3:23415Field goal7–27
NYGQ2 1:4839Punt7–27
NEQ2 1:07467Field goal7–30
NYGQ3 15:00733Turnover on downs7–30
NEQ3 10:451235Missed field goal7–30
NYGQ3 4:09965Touchdown15–30
NEQ4 14:54636Punt15–30
NYGQ4 10:46613Punt15–30
NEQ4 7:411258Field goal15–33
NYGQ4 2:14624Turnover on downs15–33
NEQ4 1:0800End of half15–33

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart17/2413910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary12685.71
Tyrone Tracy Jr.10363.60
Jaxson Dart4205.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton23411
Devin Singletary33340
Wan'Dale Robinson78340
Theo Johnson38290
Isaiah Hodgins1140
Tyrone Tracy Jr.11-30

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye24/3128220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
TreVeyon Henderson11676.10
Rhamondre Stevenson12403.30
Drake Maye6122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry46730
Rhamondre Stevenson33400
Kayshon Boutte45351
DeMario Douglas33330
Kyle Williams11331
Stefon Diggs34260
Mack Hollins34230
TreVeyon Henderson34190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.7%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.53