Closing spread
NE -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.154
- 42.9%Success rate48.2%
- +0.099EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.089
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.5%
- -1.30CPOE+10.94
- 39.6%Third-down rate43.3%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 2.06Points / drive2.47
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 3-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 17/24 | 139 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 7 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 24/31 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 4 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 33 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.53