Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.189EPA / play-0.165
- 38.9%Success rate38.2%
- -0.226EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.205
- 5.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- -3.39CPOE+0.19
- 30.8%Third-down rate30.9%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.00Points / drive1.09
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NYG are 7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 12/21 | 89 | 0 | 2 |
| Bailey Zappe | 9/14 | 54 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 21 | 98 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 6 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 17/25 | 191 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tommy DeVito | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Hyatt | 5 | 6 | 109 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.32