2023 · Week 12

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

7·10

Giants

New York

QB Tommy DeVito

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -4.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapGiants
  • -0.189EPA / play-0.165
  • 38.9%Success rate38.2%
  • -0.226EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.205
  • 5.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -3.39CPOE+0.19
  • 30.8%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.09
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. NYG are 7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13NYG @ NE15–33NE
2019 · W6NYG @ NE14–35NE
2015 · W10NE @ NYG27–26NE
2011 · playoffsNYG @ NE21–17NYG
2011 · W9NYG @ NE24–20NYG
2007 · playoffsNYG @ NE17–14NYG
2007 · W17NE @ NYG38–35NE
2003 · W6NYG @ NE6–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00549Turnover0–0
NEQ1 12:2938Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:44415Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:10943Punt0–0
NYGQ1 4:54520Punt0–0
NEQ1 2:01415Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 0:03422Punt0–0
NEQ2 14:0639Punt0–0
NYGQ2 12:3035Punt0–0
NEQ2 11:031269Turnover0–0
NYGQ2 4:27626Touchdown0–7
NEQ2 1:5333Punt0–7
NYGQ2 1:21418Punt0–7
NEQ2 0:3410End of half0–7
NEQ3 15:001160Touchdown7–7
NYGQ3 8:02633Punt7–7
NEQ3 3:21529Punt7–7
NYGQ3 0:52413Punt7–7
NEQ4 14:02311Turnover7–7
NYGQ4 12:31718Field goal7–10
NEQ4 8:1053Punt7–10
NYGQ4 5:3132Punt7–10
NEQ4 3:15933Missed field goal7–10
NYGQ4 0:0300End of half7–10

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones12/218902
Bailey Zappe9/145401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson21984.71
Ezekiel Elliott9465.10
Tyquan Thornton133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMario Douglas69490
DeVante Parker35420
Tyquan Thornton25190
JuJu Smith-Schuster24100
Rhamondre Stevenson5590
Kayshon Boutte1280
Ezekiel Elliott2260
Ty Montgomery0100
Mike Gesicki0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy DeVito17/2519110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley12463.80
Matt Breida263.00
Tommy DeVito561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalin Hyatt561090
Wan'Dale Robinson45260
Darius Slayton23160
Isaiah Hodgins11121
Matt Breida11100
Daniel Bellinger1180
Sterling Shepard1360
Saquon Barkley1360
Parris Campbell11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.32